I Am a Black Swan

I Am a Black Swan

Much has been written about “Black Swans”: unpredicted, massively game-changing and, in hindsight completely foreseeable events. Why do they happen and why are we surprised? More importantly, what can we do to mitigate against the unforeseeable?

The potential for game-changing risks is becoming more frequent and more impactful, due to global drivers and trends: from the technology front (speed of technical advance and disintermediation of technology) to the business front (concentration risk from outsourcing and interdependencies of supply chains) to the political front (Eurozone consolidation and global terrorism).

Traditional Risk Management and Security programs are blind to many of these factors. They also fall short because we are hard-wired to misinterpret risk. We as humans are subject to Availability Bias, Base Rate Bias, the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy and other cognitive flaws that impede our understanding of risk and probability. Next-generation security and risk management must evolve in order to compensate for these flaws and mitigate against the global drivers of Black Swans. Certain "Start-to-Do", "Stop-Doing"” and "Do-Differently" practices can help organizations address these contingencies and make your programs "Swan-Proof" or at least "Swan-Tolerant".

Key takeaways:

• Learn about "Black Swan" events in a pragmatic and business-based context (why they matter)
• Be able to discuss global drivers and trends behind increasing risk in strategic business terms not "scary-speak"
• Be able to recognize cognitive flaws which impede understanding of Risk and Probability and be ready to compensate for them
• Learn steps for improving Security and Risk Management programs and take them back for immediate implementation